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There are a lot of questions here and I am happy to go through them all, but it may take a few posts over a few days.

Let's start here:

drew wrote:anyone in walking dead rating territory total viewers?

This is a very complex question believe it or not.

Let's start with one of the things that makes scripted programing on cable so hard to get a true grasp of viewership with. Most large cable networks have at least 2 feeds (East & West) and what provider carries what is hard to figure out. I know personally over the years living in Los Angeles I have had multiple options. I have had the east coast feed because there only was one when I had cable in the 1980s and first few years of the 1990s. Toward the end of that period that would change and some channels I had east and some west.Then when I switched to DirecTV in the early 1990s I had east coast feeds, however in the mid 1990s DirecTV use to offer me both feed east and west and I had the option of where to watch. As channels exploded the satellite companies didn't have room for 2 feeds of all channels so I went to having only east coast feeds. Then I switched back to cable and now I have usually only west coast feeds. Needless to say residents of Los Angeles with different providers all have different options. Knowing this cable networks often broadcast new episodes multiple times in a night so when all the advertising says 10PM, regardless of the feed you have hopefully it is on at 10PM. That could mean for someone on the west coast, the west coast feed at 10PM or the East coast 1AM rebroadcast feed. So for a show like the Walking Dead new episodes are aired multiple times across multiple feeds, and for simplicity sake all those are combined into a single rating number for cable broadcasts. A person with both feeds who watched multiple times could in theory count multiple times. That isn't the case with broadcast, you have your local network affiliate, and that is it. So Cable total views are already up a little because they count rebroadcasts and multiple feeds.

Lets talk about the most viewed shows of 2016. Michael Mulvihill of Fox Sports pulled every single number for the year from Neilsen and then ran some interesting analysis. The most viewed show in America for 2016 was 136.5 billion minutes of Law & Order: SVU mostly watched in syndication on USA. The remainder of the top 10:

2 Sponge Bob Squarepants
3 NCIS
4 Forensic Files
5 Teen Titans Go
6 Good Morning America
7 The Newsroom on CNN
8 The Today show
9 American Pickers
10 The Big Bang Theory (CBS, TBS and many local channels that carry it in syndication)

So remember that is 136.5 billion minutes for the top scripted show.

The 2016 NFL regular season all games combined had about 349 billion minutes viewed.

So when talking total views, cable shows have a huge advantage over broadcast and the more something is syndicated the more views it will have. But again it is hard number to wrap your mind around.

Here are the Top shows primetime for last season 2015-2016 by average viewer per new broadcast to the best of my ability with what is available including all views +30 day views and stream:

1 The Walking Dead
2 Sunday Night Football
3 Empire
4 Thursday Night Football
5 Big Bang Theory
6 Game of Thrones
7 The X-Files
8 Monday Night Football
9 Modern Family
10 Grey's Anatomy
11 How to Get Away with Murder
12 Scandal
13 Fear of the Walking Dead
14 The Voice
15 American Horror Story
16 NCIS
17 The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
18 Blindspot
19 American Idol
20 The Bachelor
(21 Talking Dead)

Last note, while the Walking Dead had the most viewers in primetime, the most watched show in America is the 4PM EST NFL national game of the week that rotates between Fox & CBS each week but that is not in primetime.

fudd71 wrote:There are a lot of questions here and I am happy to go through them all, but it may take a few posts over a few days.

Let's start here:

drew wrote:anyone in walking dead rating territory total viewers?

This is a very complex question believe it or not.

Let's start with one of the things that makes scripted programing on cable so hard to get a true grasp of viewership with. Most large cable networks have at least 2 feeds (East & West) and what provider carries what is hard to figure out. I know personally over the years living in Los Angeles I have had multiple options. I have had the east coast feed because there only was one when I had cable in the 1980s and first few years of the 1990s. Toward the end of that period that would change and some channels I had east and some west.Then when I switched to DirecTV in the early 1990s I had east coast feeds, however in the mid 1990s DirecTV use to offer me both feed east and west and I had the option of where to watch. As channels exploded the satellite companies didn't have room for 2 feeds of all channels so I went to having only east coast feeds. Then I switched back to cable and now I have usually only west coast feeds. Needless to say residents of Los Angeles with different providers all have different options. Knowing this cable networks often broadcast new episodes multiple times in a night so when all the advertising says 10PM, regardless of the feed you have hopefully it is on at 10PM. That could mean for someone on the west coast, the west coast feed at 10PM or the East coast 1AM rebroadcast feed. So for a show like the Walking Dead new episodes are aired multiple times across multiple feeds, and for simplicity sake all those are combined into a single rating number for cable broadcasts. A person with both feeds who watched multiple times could in theory count multiple times. That isn't the case with broadcast, you have your local network affiliate, and that is it. So Cable total views are already up a little because they count rebroadcasts and multiple feeds.

Lets talk about the most viewed shows of 2016. Michael Mulvihill of Fox Sports pulled every single number for the year from Neilsen and then ran some interesting analysis. The most viewed show in America for 2016 was 136.5 billion minutes of Law & Order: SVU mostly watched in syndication on USA. The remainder of the top 10:

2 Sponge Bob Squarepants
3 NCIS
4 Forensic Files
5 Teen Titans Go
6 Good Morning America
7 The Newsroom on CNN
8 The Today show
9 American Pickers
10 The Big Bang Theory (CBS, TBS and many local channels that carry it in syndication)

So remember that is 136.5 billion minutes for the top scripted show.

The 2016 NFL regular season all games combined had about 349 billion minutes viewed.

So when talking total views, cable shows have a huge advantage over broadcast and the more something is syndicated the more views it will have. But again it is hard number to wrap your mind around.

Here are the Top shows primetime for last season 2015-2016 by average viewer per new broadcast to the best of my ability with what is available including all views +30 day views and stream:

1 The Walking Dead
2 Sunday Night Football
3 Empire
4 Thursday Night Football
5 Big Bang Theory
6 Game of Thrones
7 The X-Files
8 Monday Night Football
9 Modern Family
10 Grey's Anatomy
11 How to Get Away with Murder
12 Scandal
13 Fear of the Walking Dead
14 The Voice
15 American Horror Story
16 NCIS
17 The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
18 Blindspot
19 American Idol
20 The Bachelor
(21 Talking Dead)

Last note, while the Walking Dead had the most viewers in primetime, the most watched show in America is the 4PM EST NFL national game of the week that rotates between Fox & CBS each week but that is not in primetime.

hey no worries if you cant get to em or just dont want to...i find this stuff fascinating but can lead down a rabbit hole...good info here - thanks

In NFL ratings news... (This one hurts me for obvious reasons) The Packers-Cowboys wild Divisional game on Sunday was the most-watched NFL Divisional Playoff game ever on any network according to Fox with an average of 48.5 million people and last seconds peak of 62.4 million people.

Also it looks like there might be more primetime games in the future as the Steelers-Chiefs game on Sunday night (rescheduled due to bad weather) pulled in an average of 37.1 million viewers.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/16/media/p ... l-ratings/


The only solace I can take away from my miserable Sunday night is the fact that Rayne Dakota Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott will have a very bright future and lead the Cowboys to Greatness again!!

MisterFerro wrote:In NFL ratings news... (This one hurts me for obvious reasons) The Packers-Cowboys wild Divisional game on Sunday was the most-watched NFL Divisional Playoff game ever on any network according to Fox with an average of 48.5 million people and last seconds peak of 62.4 million people.

Also it looks like there might be more primetime games in the future as the Steelers-Chiefs game on Sunday night (rescheduled due to bad weather) pulled in an average of 37.1 million viewers.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/16/media/p ... l-ratings/


The only solace I can take away from my miserable Sunday night is the fact that Rayne Dakota Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott will have a very bright future and lead the Cowboys to Greatness again!!

Some context for just how big that number is on the Packers-Cowboys
Total viewers:
Packers-Cowboys: 48.522 million
Cubs-Indians game 7: 40.51 million
Cavaliers-Warriors game 7: 30.8 million

The idea of a moving all future Sunday Playoff games to Primetime seems very unlikely to me. There has been lots of talk about it and how the weather related change in kick-off was just a ratings ploy, however the numbers don't back it up. This years Chiefs - Steelers Division game drew 37.11 million viewers. Last years AFC Divisional game Steelers - Broncos had 43.0 million viewers (4 PM EST) and last years 1PM EST start game Seahawks - Panthers had 38.3 million viewers. Total viewers either by league or the 1PM vs 8PM start time is down. Total viewership was up for every other NFL playoff game so far this year, and that is normal. I realize that is a huge number for primetime but most available data suggests it would have been larger at 1PM.

MisterFerro wrote: The only solace I can take away from my miserable Sunday night is the fact that Rayne Dakota Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott will have a very bright future and lead the Cowboys to Greatness again!!

pretty darn good season - future is bright

A fairly interesting article about the waining power of procedurals in the syndication market.

Article from Deadline

fudd71 wrote:A fairly interesting article about the waining power of procedurals in the syndication market.

Article from Deadline

Thank you Sam for posting this link, there was so much to unpack. Streaming platforms are training us to consume more television programs in a different fashion, we have access to a large chunk of episodes at the same time. Growing up syndication trained me to be return to that network at a particular time. If I wanted to watch reruns of Charlies' Angels, I could watch them from 5 PM - 6 PM Monday - Friday (or I would tape the episode and watch it later). With so many services (and content) I do not have to follow a preprogrammed pattern. I tend to treat movies like a separate entity. Once the film ends it is over, unless there is a sequel/prequel. However I consider every episode of a television series part of a singular entity. Though I certainly rate episodes of that show, I tend to watch every episode of a show that I enjoy.

drew wrote: do you have visibility for subscriber numbers for premium/stream tv - netflix, amazon prime, hulu vs. HBO, showtime, starz - whos up/whos down? westworld was THE water cooler show and the most pirated of all time but does that equate to growth in subscribers?

Finally getting around to having time to answering another question.

Last numbers I have are as follows:
Netflix 47.71 million US that is Q3 2016 the worldwide subscriber base is estimated about 93.8 million in Jan 2017
No official numbers on HBO Go last official statement from HBO CEO was about 800K in February 2015
Hulu last official announcement was 12 million US subscribers in May 2016
Amazon has claimed to have the largest subscriber base; one of about 65 million, but that is US Prime subscribers. As has been pointed out many Prime members either don’t know or simply don’t use the video streaming service.

What I think is much more telling is percentage of broadband usage. It is currently estimate that about 70% of all broadband usage is for video streaming and by this measurement it shows Netflix is killing everyone.
Video Streaming:
Netflix 52.8%
YouTube 25.5%
Amazon Video 4.4%
Hulu 3.7%
iTues video: 3.9% (remember this includes all purchased video content as well as HBO Go, you can take a guess from this but my guess is HBO is less than a quarter of iTunes business making them less than 1% of the total)

Regardless of subscribers Netflix is the elephant in the room, no one is even close as far as what people are actually watching. Amazon can make a case for huge number of subscribers but many don’t use or even know they have a video streaming subscription. For actual viewing there is Netflix and a bunch of also rans.

fudd71 wrote: Netflix 47.71 million US that is Q3 2016 the worldwide subscriber base is estimated about 93.8 million in Jan 2017

jeezus dog ballz thats a gigantic number

fudd71 wrote:Amazon can make a case for huge number of subscribers but many don’t use or even know they have a video streaming subscription.

guilty - i had amazon prime for years still havent streamed the first show - like the music streaming though...

earlier in this thread we talked about DVR and streaming penetration and market share.

Here is an article in Variety about some of those numbers

highlight summary points. Streaming penetration now larger than DVR penetration. Both those numbers still under 55% of adults in America. While streaming is still growing DVR penetration seemingly has stalled. While streaming and DVR services still make up large parts of video consumption among some it isn't this overwhelming experience of all American households some would like to believe it is. Tradition viewing isn't dead, and is at the same levels as streaming and DVR viewing. We will see if that changes, but the reports of the death of live TV seem to be greatly exaggerated.

fudd71 wrote:earlier in this thread we talked about DVR and streaming penetration and market share.

Here is an article in Variety about some of those numbers

highlight summary points. Streaming penetration now larger than DVR penetration. Both those numbers still under 55% of adults in America. While streaming is still growing DVR penetration seemingly has stalled. While streaming and DVR services still make up large parts of video consumption among some it isn't this overwhelming experience of all American households some would like to believe it is. Tradition viewing isn't dead, and is at the same levels as streaming and DVR viewing. We will see if that changes, but the reports of the death of live TV seem to be greatly exaggerated.

interesting - it seems folks continue to cut the cord to streaming - cant say i blame them my satellite bill is close to $100/month...

Over on the chat channel we have been discussing tv rating and renewals, so I wanted to post the season to date numbers and my current predictions for all scripted shows on broadcast tv:

ABC:
Show avg rating avg share prediction
Modern Family 2.19 7.65 predicting renewal
Grey's Anatomy 2.15 7.82 renewed
Goldbergs 1.81 6.72 predicting renewal
Speechless 1.64 5.83 predicting renewal
Black-ish 1.58 5.33 predicting renewal
Middle 1.58 5.88 renewed
Scandal 1.57 5.57 renewed
American Housewife 1.53 5.18 predicting renewal
Designated Survivor 1.39 5.00 predicting renewal
How to Get Away with Murder 1.29 4.57 renewed
Fresh Off the Boat 1.22 4.41 predicting renewal
Last Man Standing 1.16 4.86 predicting renewal
Once Upon a Time 1.00 3.29 is in trouble, has been asked to cut budget. I will assume they will reach a deal. Most of the time they do but not always, like Castle last year. I will predict renewal
Real O'Neals 0.93 3.31 predicting cancelled
Dr. Ken 0.88 3.71 predicting renewal
Notorious 0.87 3.10 cancelled
Secrets and Lies 0.76 2.33 predicting cancelled
Agents of SHIELD 0.75 2.73 predicting cancelled
The Catch 0.73 3.00 predicting renewal very close
Quantico 0.73 2.60 predicting cancelled
Conviction 0.64 2.46 cancelled
Time After Time 0.53 2.00 predicting cancelled
When We Rise 0.53 2.25 true miniseries
American Crime 0.40 1.67 this should be cancelled but I have missed twice predicting that. It is a 3rd season show but with only 30 total episodes. I am predicting this to be cancelled but nothing will surprise me

CBS:
The Big Bang Theory 3.27 12.11 renewed
NCIS 1.80 6.61 renewed
Kevin Can Wait 1.70 5.90 renewed
Great Indoors 1.51 5.38 predicting renewal
Bull 1.48 5.24 renewed
Mom 1.45 4.94 renewed
Criminal Minds 1.40 5.00 predicting renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.37 4.50 renewed
2 Broke Girls 1.33 4.47 predicting cancelled
Life in Pieces 1.30 4.63 renewed
Superior Donuts 1.28 4.56 renewed
Man with a Plan 1.30 4.53 renewed
NCIS: New Orleans 1.21 4.50 renewed
Hawaii Five-O 1.21 4.89 renewed
Scorpion 1.21 4.26 renewed
Blue Bloods 1.19 4.82 renewed
MacGyver 1.11 4.78 renewed
The Odd Couple 1.08 3.54 predicting cancelled
Code Black 0.97 3.50 predicting renewal
Madam Secretary 0.94 3.06 renewed
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders 0.87 3.00 predicting renewal
Pure Genius 0.86 3.00 cancelled
Ransom 0.80 3.00 predicting cancelled
Training Day 0.75 2.83 cancelled
Doubt 0.70 2.50 cancelled
Good Fight 0.70 3.00
Elementary 0.67 2.56 predicting cancelled

CW:
Flash 1.08 3.82 renewed
Supergirl 0.78 2.88 renewed
Arrow 0.66 2.53 renewed
Legends of Tomorrow 0.65 2.33 renewed
Supernatural 0.63 2.20 renewed
Riverdale 0.41 1.43 renewed
Vampire Diaries 0.38 1.47 cancelled
The 100 0.37 1.14 renewed
Jane the Virgin 0.36 1.40 renewed
The Originals 0.35 1.50 predicting cancelled
No Tomorrow 0.28 1.15 predicting cancelled
Frequency 0.28 1.00 predicting cancelled
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend 0.20 1.00 renewed
Reign 0.20 1.00 cancelled

Fox:
Empire 3.17 10.30 renewed
Simpsons 1.89 6.12 renewed
24: Legacy 1.60 5.78 predicting renewal
Lethal Weapon 1.57 5.72 renewed
Star 1.35 4.67 renewed
Family Guy 1.32 4.35 predicting renewal
Son of Zorn 1.28 4.08 predicting cancelled
The Mick 1.23 4.17 renewed
Gotham 1.14 3.71 predicting renewal
Shots Fired 1.10 4.00
Lucifer 1.08 3.62 renewed
Bob's Burgers 1.04 3.50 renewed
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 0.96 3.50 predicting renewal
Last Man on Earth 0.95 3.08 predicting renewal
New Girl 0.91 3.29 predicting cancelled
APB 0.86 3.13 predicting cancelled
Pitch 0.85 3.30 predicting cancelled
Bones 0.79 2.91 canceled
Making History 0.75 3.00 predicting cancelled
Rosewood 0.70 2.65 predicting cancelled
Exorcist 0.67 3.00 predicting cancelled
Scream Queens 0.61 2.20 predicting cancelled
Sleepy Hollow 0.50 1.83 predicting cancelled

NBC:
This Is Us 2.68 9.00 renewed
Chicago Fire 1.61 6.00 predicting renewal
Law & Order: SVU 1.45 5.00 predicting renewal
Chicago PD 1.43 5.19 predicting renewal
The Good Place 1.38 5.08 renewed
Chicago Justice 1.27 4.67 predicting renewal
Chicago Med 1.30 4.53 predicting renewal
Taken 1.18 4.40 predicting cancelled
Superstore 1.20 4.41 renewed
Trial & Error 1.18 4.50 predicting renewal
Timeless 1.12 3.94 predicting cancelled
Blindspot 1.06 3.93 predicting renewal
Blacklist 1.06 3.80 predicting renewal
Shades of Blue 0.88 3.25 renewed
Powerless 0.82 3.20 predicting cancelled
Grimm 0.79 3.08 cancelled
Blacklist: Redemption 0.78 3.20 predicting cancelled
Emerald City 0.69 2.33 predicting cancelled

****The two show with no prediction Shots Fired and the Good Fight have only aired a single episode and I don't have enough information for a prediciton

We are into sweeps and up fronts are just around the corner so after a few adjustments here are my final predictions. If you disagree or have questions please ask:

ABC
Agents of SHIELD predicting cancelled
American Crime predicting cancelled
American Housewife predicting renewal
Black-ish predicting renewal
Conviction cancelled
Designated Survivor predicting renewal
Dr. Ken predicting renewal
Fresh Off the Boat predicting renewal
Goldbergs predicting renewal
Grey's Anatomy renewed
How to Get Away with Murder renewed
Imaginary Mary predicting cancelled
Last Man Standing predicting renewal
Middle renewed
Modern Family predicting renewal
Notorious cancelled
Once Upon a Time predicting renewal (the one I feel least confident in)
Quantico predicting cancelled
Real O'Neals predicting cancelled
Scandal renewed
Secrets and Lies predicting cancelled
Speechless predicting renewal
The Catch predicting cancelled (would be the first of the Shonda shows to be cancelled)
Time After Time cancelled

CBS
2 Broke Girls predicting cancelled
Blue Bloods renewed
Bull renewed
Code Black predicting cancelled
Criminal Minds renewed
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders predicting cancelled
Doubt cancelled
Elementary predicting cancelled
Great Indoors predicting cancelled
Hawaii Five-O renewed
Kevin Can Wait renewed
Life in Pieces renewed
MacGyver renewed
Madam Secretary
Man With a Plan renewed
Mom renewed
NCIS renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed
NCIS: New Orleans renewed
Pure Genius cancelled
Ransom predicting cancelled
Scorpion renewed
Superior Donuts renewed
Big Bang Theory renewed
The Odd Couple cancelled
Training Day cancelled

CW
Arrow renewed
Crazy Ex-Grilfriend renewed
Flash renewed
Frequency predicting cancelled
iZombie predicting renewal
Jane the Virgin renewed
Legends of Tomorrow renewed
No Tomorrow renewed
Reign cancelled
Riverdale renewed
Supergirl renewed
Supernatural renewed
The 100 renewed
The Originals predicting cancelled
Vampire Diaries cancelled

Fox
24:Legacy predicting renewal
APB predicting cancelled
Bob's Burgers renewed
Bones cancelled
Brooklyn Nine-nine predicting renewal
Empire renewed
Exorcist predicting cancelled
Family Guy predicting renewal
Gotham predicting renewal
Last Man on Earth predicting renewal
Lethal Weapon renewed
Lucifer renewed
Making History predicting cancelled
New Girl predicting cancelled
Pitch cancelled
Prison Break predicting renewal (not confident at all)
Rosewood predicting cancelled
Scream Queens predicting cancelled
Shots Fired predicting cancelled
Simpsons renewed
Sleepy Hollow predicting cancelled
Son of Zorn predicting cancelled
Star renewed
The Mick renewed

NBC
Blacklist predicting renewal
Blacklist: Redemption predicting cancelled
Blindspot predicting renewal
Chicago Fire predicting renewal
Chicago Justice predicting renewal
Chicago Med predicting renewal
Chicago PD predicting renewal
Emerald City predicting cancelled
Great News predicting cancelled
Grimm cancelled
Law & Order: SVU predicting renewal
Powerless cancelled
Shades of Blue renewed
Superstore renewed
Taken predicting cancelled
The Good Place renewed
This Is Us renewed
Timeless predicting cancelled
Trial & Error predicting cancelled

some of the network slates look more crowded than others - how many shows can realistically be added to each network - do they have a certain number of half-hour sitcoms or hour long dramas that much be slotted historically or does it fluctuate wildly based on year and network?

drew wrote:some of the network slates look more crowded than others - how many shows can realistically be added to each network - do they have a certain number of half-hour sitcoms or hour long dramas that much be slotted historically or does it fluctuate wildly based on year and network?

two answers that are related:

1) the network's head of programming can do whatever they choose as far as scripted shows vs. unscripted vs news programming vs. special events. So there is no rule for 1/2 hour vs. hour long vs. even longer shows (at one point a "movie night" was typical of broadcast schedules). Also some networks (Fox started this in the 1990s) intentionally program to seasons so there is a different schedule for the fall and spring and maybe a separate winter line up. In the old days all shows started in the fall and ended in the spring, networks would pull losers in the fall and start new shows mid season, this was done to fix failing shows not on purpose. Now it is often done on purpose and scheduled that way.

2) Different networks have different amounts of time to fill.
For the most part:

ABC, CBS & NBC:
8-11 PM Monday - Friday and 7-11 PM on Sunday for 19 hours a week of national prime time programming

Fox 8-10 PM Monday - Friday and 7-10 PM Sunday for 13 hours a week of national prime time programming

CW 8-10 PM Monday - Friday for 10 hours a week of national prime time programming.